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The central Bank of China published December 7 it " Report 2006 on the financial stability". This document brings an analysis of the present financial situation and the monetary politics of China. But in a special category, it also warns the potential apparition of a financial risk bound to the fall of the selling price of the real estate.

According to the newspaper Chinese Xinxishibao, this report insists on the selling prices raised of the real estate and foresees a financial risk if the new macroeconomic politics proves to be inefficient. Nevertheless, a suitable politics could probably entail the decrease of the curve of the selling price of the real estate, add the Xinxishibao.

Chen Zhihong, assistant director-general and to counsel administration of the agency real estate Everbright Guangzhou, foresees a decrease of the selling price of the real estate in Guangzhou from 2 years on because of the setting in application of the administrative restrictions. According to him, of some years, the business premises won't represent 40% of the real estate market anymore, while the apartments to middle and modest rents will occupy 20% of them, and the apartments submitted to administrative restrictions, 20%. Thus, the apartments of categories middle and lower will represent 60% about the real estate market. The selling price of the real estate has the tendency to decrease, M.Chen esteem.

In counterpart, the central Bank recognizes, always in this text, the existence of a demand always important for the lodging and therefore source of investment. The speculation will exist again during a long time in the real estate market. Some of the specialists of the sector even foresee a light rise of the selling price of the real estate in a short delay.

The central Bank intends to really insist on the existing measures destined to reduce the warming-up of the investments in the real estate sector. End 2005, the balance of the 16 Chinese commercial banks of the real estate credits granted to the individuals rose to 2025.8 billion yuans, either a growth of 177.2 billions of yuans in relation to 2004. According to analysts, the demands of lodgings are always important. But some potential purchasers wait for a decrease, even minimal, of the real estate, before taking all decision.

For Chen Linen, professor of the institute of the economy and the management of Guangzhou, the government wants rather to see the stability that the fall of the selling price of the real estate. From where the alarm pulled by the central Bank. The setting in application of a system of lodging insurance would be able to, according to M.Chen, certainly to contribute to the stability of the selling price of the real estate and to help most plain people to achieve their dream to acquire a lodging.

Indeed, the tendency of the selling price is not quite clear in the real estate market. A decrease important of the selling price of the real estate risks to depreciate the pledges of the banks, and to have a negative impact on the real estate credits. And the reduction of the credits could accelerate for its part the fall of the selling price of the real estate.

According to very aware sources, under the influence of the macroeconomic politics, a few 24 billion dollars have been withdrawn already from China. What probably slowed down the blaze of the selling price of the real estate. Wong Chi Hoo, economist in chief of the bank Standard Chartered estimates that a waiting of the révalorisation of the RMB always exists in the financial market, notably the NDF market (Delivery Forward) that foresees a revalorization of 3 to 5% of the RMB in relation to the dollar.

For M. Wongs, the administrative measures and the rumors on the restriction of the selling price of the real estate played a lot in China during the first two quarters of 2006. It is therefore normal to see a slowing of the introduction of the foreign funds in the Chinese real estate market, or even the departure of fund.